China's Real Home Prices Have Erased Two Decades of Gains

China’s real home prices just did something they haven’t done in 21 years: fall below where they started. The Bank for International Settlements’ inflation-adjusted price index for China hit 85.13 (2010=100) in Q1 2026 — the lowest print since the series began in 2005, when it opened at 88.0. Nominal prices are still 14% above 2010. Adjust for inflation, and two decades of gains are gone.

The decline is still active

This isn’t stale data. National Bureau of Statistics figures, reported by Bloomberg on 2026-06-16, show new-build prices fell year-on-year for a 35th straight month in May. Resale prices across 100 cities kept sliding into June, led by second-tier cities, down 8.21%.

Real, it turns out, is a much colder number than nominal.

What this doesn’t show: developer sales are stabilizing, narrowing for a fourth straight month. Volume may bottom before price does.