Occasional writing on index design, portfolio construction, and market structure.
Poland Budgets a 7.1% Deficit Against a 3.7% Path
Poland's draft 2027 budget sets the general government deficit at 7.1% of GDP against the 3.7% path it filed with Brussels in 2024. As Romania consolidates, Poland takes over the EU's widest deficit by standing still.
Finland, Not Spain, Has the EU's Highest Unemployment Rate
Finland's unemployment rate was 10.3% in June 2026 against Spain's 10.1%. It is the first time since 2010 that the EU's worst labour market has not been in the south.
China's 3D-Printer Export Boom Has a Profit Problem
China shipped 3.61 million 3D printers in H1 2026, up 90% year over year, but the sector's biggest listed player just warned of a net loss.
Italy Kept Selling the Wine and Stopped Getting the Price
Italian wine exports to the US fell 6% by volume this year but 15.4% by revenue — priced in dollars, the wine barely got cheaper. The gap is currency, not discounting.
Greece Is Europe's Only Negative Saver
Greece's household saving rate was -5.12% in Q1 2026, the sole negative figure in the EU against a 14.14% bloc average, and it's been negative every quarter since early 2024.
US Pharma Tariffs: 100% on Paper, 15% for the EU, Zero for 13 of 17
The US ended 31 years of duty-free pharmaceutical trade on 31 July 2026 with a headline 100% tariff, but the annexes show most of the first companies hit already sit at zero.
The UAE Won Its Quota Fight: It Stopped Mattering
The UAE left OPEC to prove it could pump beyond its old quota. By June it was near full capacity, but Gulf oil's real constraint turned out to be the Strait of Hormuz, not the cartel.
The Reverse Yield Gap Comes Back
UK gilts and German Bunds now yield more than the dividends on their own stock markets, reversing a relationship that held from 1959 to 2009. The gap is wide in Britain and narrower on the Continent.
Europe's Money, America's Address
Europe's ETF industry raised a record $265.65 billion in H1 2026, up 51% year over year. By June, European-equity funds were losing money for the third straight month while North America-focused funds pulled in three times their average haul.
The World's Richest Country Ranks Eighth on Median Wealth
UBS's 2026 wealth report puts Switzerland first in average wealth per adult and eighth on the median — a gap that has widened for 25 years while household debt and a strong franc explain only part of it.
The UK's Millionaire Exodus: The Number That Got Withdrawn
Henley & Partners said 9,500 millionaires left the UK in 2024 and forecast 16,500 more for 2025. In its June 2026 report, it quietly dropped both figures.
China's Real Home Prices Have Erased Two Decades of Gains
China's inflation-adjusted home price index just hit its lowest level since records began in 2005, even though nominal prices are still above where they stood in 2010.
The $14 Billion Lockup in Private Credit
Retail investors in semi-liquid private credit funds are hitting hard 5%-per-quarter withdrawal caps, and the unmet redemption requests are rolling forward each quarter instead of clearing.
Europe's Great Housing Divergence
EU house prices rose 5.1% year-on-year in Q1 2026, but that average hides a huge split: Portugal up almost 18%, Finland the only country where prices fell.
SpaceX, Intel, WBD, and Lucid Lost $12 Billion in Q1 2026
Four companies with nothing in common in what they do racked up a combined net loss of more than $12 billion in the same quarter, each for a completely different reason.
Germany's Inflation: Cooling Headline, Sticky Services
German headline inflation fell to 2.6% in May, but services costs are still running at 3.1% — above target for over two years running, driven by wage- and admin-heavy categories interest rates barely touch.
Why USDT Is Trading 10% Above Its Dollar Peg in India
A crackdown on unauthorized crypto-payment firms cut off USDT supply in India, pushing exchange prices up to 10% above the dollar peg — nearly triple the normal gap.
Japan Tightens Into Inflation Its Own Data No Longer Shows
The Bank of Japan hiked its policy rate to a three-decade high in June, even as its own core inflation gauges fell below target for the first time since 2022.
Strategy's Bitcoin Premium Machine Goes Into Reverse
Strategy's mNAV — the premium its stock has always traded above its bitcoin holdings — closed below 1.0 for the first time in June 2026, and the company responded by selling bitcoin and pivoting to buybacks.
Eurozone Inflation Turns Services-Led as Energy Plateaus
May's jump to 3.2% eurozone inflation got blamed on energy, but energy held flat. Services did the damage, and that's why the ECB moved.
How Do You Value Bitcoin? Depends on What You Think It Is
No single model gives a definitive Bitcoin price. This note collects all the main valuation approaches in one table and explains what each one is actually measuring.