Poland Budgets a 7.1% Deficit Against a 3.7% Path

Poland’s 2027 draft budget, tabled on 28 August 2026, puts the general government deficit at 7.1% of GDP. The medium-term fiscal plan Poland filed with Brussels in October 2024, endorsed by the Council that January, projected 3.7% for the same year. The gap is 3.4 percentage points.

This year is no better. The same draft marks 2026 up to 7.1%, from the 6.5% written into the budget act and the 6.8% the government was still projecting this spring. The Commission’s May forecast had 2027 at 6.3%: the government’s own draft is 0.8 points worse than Brussels expected.

Poland takes the top spot by standing still

Poland ran 7.3% in 2025, second in the EU to Romania’s 7.9% (Eurostat, 22 April 2026). Romania has since cut hard: a January to July cash deficit of 2.34% of GDP against 3.99% a year earlier, on track for 6.2% across the full year (Romanian finance ministry, 31 August 2026). The two figures are not measured the same way, Romania’s being cash and part-year against Poland’s full-year accrual, but the direction of travel is not in doubt. Poland takes over the top spot without moving.

The cash figures are large. On the narrower state budget measure, spending of 977.6 billion zloty against 695 billion in revenue leaves a deficit of 282.6 billion, about 66 billion euro, which the finance ministry calls a record. Debt servicing costs 107 billion, up 17 billion on 2026. Ten-year yields rose five basis points on the day, to their highest since May (Bloomberg, 28 August 2026).

What defence spending explains

One honest limit: the obvious excuse does not work. Defence takes 198.1 billion zloty, 4.51% of GDP, among NATO’s highest shares though behind all three Baltic states. That is less than the 200 billion and 4.8% in the 2026 budget. Defence spending falls next year, in cash and as a share of GDP. It cannot explain a deficit that widened.