Novo Nordisk, Once Worth 153% of Denmark's GDP, Is Now Worth 39%

Novo Nordisk’s listed B shares closed at a record DKK 1,028 on 25 June 2024 (Nasdaq Copenhagen). At that price the company was worth 153% of Denmark’s 2024 GDP. On 11 September 2026 they closed at DKK 276.45, down 73%, and Novo was worth 39% of 2025 GDP.

Two-panel bar chart comparing Novo Nordisk's market value with Denmark's annual GDP. In 2024 Novo's bar, DKK 4.58 trillion, is taller than Danish GDP of DKK 2.99 trillion: 153%. In 2026 Novo's bar, DKK 1.22 trillion, is well under Danish GDP of DKK 3.12 trillion: 39%.

The downgrade

That day Morgan Stanley downgraded the stock to underweight, citing slowing growth and semaglutide patents that start expiring in the early 2030s. The bank expects semaglutide, the drug in Ozempic and Wegovy, to make up about 75% of Novo’s 2026 sales.

With 4.42 billion shares outstanding (Novo, 7 September 2026), the company is valued at DKK 1.22 trillion, about €164 billion. Denmark’s 2025 GDP was DKK 3.12 trillion, about €418 billion (Statistics Denmark, 30 June 2026).

The industry kept growing

The pharmaceutical industry, led by Novo, added 2.3 percentage points to Denmark’s 3.9% GDP growth in 2024. In 2025 it added 1.1 points to 3.5%, and other industries together contributed more for the first time since 2021. Between 2019 and 2025, real value added grew 16.6% for the whole economy. Without pharma: 8.1%.

Pharma’s boost is shrinking. After a large first quarter, it added little in the second quarter of 2026, when GDP rose 0.3% (Statistics Denmark, 20 August 2026). Value added grew 0.4%; without pharma, 0.3%.

Investors took nearly three-quarters off Novo’s value while its industry was still adding to Danish growth. The market is pricing life after semaglutide.

One honest limit: market value and GDP measure different things. Market value reflects expected future profits, mostly from sales outside Denmark; GDP is one year of domestic output. The ratio gives a sense of scale. It is not Novo’s share of the economy. Unlisted A shares are valued at the B-share price.